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Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

Alessandro Tadini 1 Andrew Harris 1 Julie Morin 2 Andrea Bevilacqua 3 Aline Peltier 4 Willy Aspinall 5 Stefano Ciolli 6 Patrick Bachèlery 1 Benjamin Bernard 7 Jonas Biren 1, 8, 9 António Brum da Silveira 10 Valéry Cayol 1 Oryaëlle Chevrel 1 Diego Coppola 11 Hannah Dietterich 12 Amy Donovan 13 Olaya Dorado 14 Stéphane Drenne 15 Olivier Dupéré 16 Lucia Gurioli 1 Stephan Kolzenburg 17 Jean-Christophe Komorowski 18 Philippe Labazuy 1 Domenico Mangione 19 Stefano Mannini 20 François Martel-Asselin 21 Etienne Médard 1 Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat 1 Victoria Rafflin 1 Michael Ramsey 22 Nicole Richter 23 Silvia Vallejo 24 Nicolas Villeneuve 25 Silvia Zafrilla 14 
9 Magma - UMR7327
ISTO - Institut des Sciences de la Terre d'Orléans - UMR7327
Abstract : Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.
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Submitted on : Monday, July 4, 2022 - 10:07:58 AM
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Alessandro Tadini, Andrew Harris, Julie Morin, Andrea Bevilacqua, Aline Peltier, et al.. Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island. Volcanica, Presses Universitaires de Strasbourg, 2022, 5 (1), pp.105-131. ⟨10.30909/vol.05.01.105131⟩. ⟨hal-03712658⟩



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