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Quantifying the Uncertainty of a Coupled Plume and Tephra Dispersal Model: PLUME‐MOM/HYSPLIT Simulations Applied to Andean Volcanoes

Abstract : Numerical modelling of tephradispersaland depositionis essential forevaluation of volcanichazards. Manymodels consider reasonable physical approximations in order toreducecomputational times, but this may introduce a certain degree of uncertainty in the simulation outputs.The important step of uncertainty quantification is dealt in this paper with respect to a coupled version of a plume model (PLUME-MoM) and a tephra dispersal model (HYSPLIT). The performances of this model are evaluated through simulationsoffourpasteruptions of different magnitudesand styles from three Andean volcanoes, and the uncertainty is quantified by evaluating the differences between modeled and observed data of plume height (at different time steps above the vent)as well asmass loading and grain sizeat givenstratigraphic sections.Different meteorological datasets were alsotestedand hada sensible influence on the model outputs. Other results highlight that the modeltendsto underestimate plume heights whileoverestimatingmass loading values, especially for higher magnitude eruptions.Moreover, the advective part of HYSPLIT seems to work more efficiently than the diffusive part.Finally, though the coupledPLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT model generally is less efficient inreproducing deposit grain sizes, we propose itmay be used for hazard maps production for higher magnitude eruptions (sub-Plinian or Plinian)for what concern mass loading.
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Submitted on : Thursday, November 19, 2020 - 4:08:44 PM
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M. De’ Michieli Vitturi, Olivier Roche, P. Samaniego, A. Guillin, N. Azzaoui, et al.. Quantifying the Uncertainty of a Coupled Plume and Tephra Dispersal Model: PLUME‐MOM/HYSPLIT Simulations Applied to Andean Volcanoes. Journal of Geophysical Research : Solid Earth, American Geophysical Union, 2020, 125 (2), ⟨10.1029/2019JB018390⟩. ⟨hal-02453781v1⟩

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