Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability
Alex C. Ruane
(1)
,
Nicholas I. Hudson
(2)
,
Senthold Asseng
(3)
,
Davide Camarrano
(3, 4)
,
Frank Ewert
(5, 6)
,
Pierre Martre
(7, 8)
,
Kenneth J. Boote
(3)
,
Peter J. Thorburn
(9)
,
Pramod K. Aggarwal
(10)
,
Carlos Angulo
(5)
,
Bruno Basso
(11)
,
Patrick Bertuzzi
(12)
,
Christian Biernath
(13)
,
Nadine Brisson
(14)
,
Andrew J. Challinor
(15, 16)
,
Jordi Doltra
(17)
,
Sebastian Gayler
(18)
,
Richard Goldberg
(2)
,
Robert F. Grant
(19)
,
Lee Heng
(20)
,
Josh Hooker
(21)
,
Leslie A. Hunt
(22)
,
Joachim Ingwersen
(18)
,
Roberto C. Izaurralde
(23)
,
Kurt Christian Kersebaum
(6)
,
Soora Naresh Kumar
(24)
,
Christoph Müller
(25)
,
Claas Nendel
(6)
,
Garry O'Leary
(26)
,
Jørgen E. Olesen
(27)
,
Tom M. Osborne
(28)
,
Taru Palosuo
(29)
,
Eckart Priesack
(13)
,
Dominique Ripoche
(12)
,
Reimund P. Rötter
(29, 30)
,
Mikhail A. Semenov
(31)
,
Iurii Shcherbak
(32)
,
Pasquale Steduto
(33)
,
Claudio O. Stöckle
(34)
,
Pierre Stratonovitch
(31)
,
Thilo Streck
(18)
,
Iwan Supit
(35)
,
Fulu Tao
(29, 36)
,
Maria Travasso
(37)
,
Katharina Waha
(9, 25)
,
Daniel Wallach
(38)
,
Jeffrey W. White
(39)
,
Joost Wolf
(40)
1
GISS -
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
2 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
3 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
4 The James Hutton Institute
5 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
6 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
7 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
8 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
9 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
10 Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute
11 Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
12 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
13 Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology
14 Agronomie
15 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
16 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
17 Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre
18 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
19 Department of Renewable Resources
20 IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna]
21 School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
22 Department of Plant Agriculture
23 Department of Geographical Sciences
24 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
25 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
26 Landscape & Water Sciences
27 Department of Agroecology
28 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology
29 Environmental Impacts Group
30 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
31 Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research
32 Institute for Future Environments
33 FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
34 Biological Systems Engineering
35 Earth System Science-Climate Change and Adaptive Land-use and Water Management
36 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
37 Institute for Climate and Water [Castelnar]
38 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
39 USDA - USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ]
40 Plant Production Systems
2 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
3 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
4 The James Hutton Institute
5 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
6 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
7 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
8 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
9 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
10 Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute
11 Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
12 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
13 Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology
14 Agronomie
15 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
16 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
17 Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre
18 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
19 Department of Renewable Resources
20 IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna]
21 School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
22 Department of Plant Agriculture
23 Department of Geographical Sciences
24 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
25 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
26 Landscape & Water Sciences
27 Department of Agroecology
28 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology
29 Environmental Impacts Group
30 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
31 Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research
32 Institute for Future Environments
33 FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
34 Biological Systems Engineering
35 Earth System Science-Climate Change and Adaptive Land-use and Water Management
36 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
37 Institute for Climate and Water [Castelnar]
38 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
39 USDA - USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ]
40 Plant Production Systems
Frank Ewert
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968227
Pierre Martre
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 183362
- IdHAL : pierre-martre
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7419-6558
- IdRef : 163589194
Andrew J. Challinor
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968229
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
Claas Nendel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772081
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7608-9097
Mikhail A. Semenov
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 774453
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1561-7113
Résumé
We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and the Netherlands as part of the Agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 ≤ 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
